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今日搜狐热点[社会] 不是丧尸国度，只是中国鬼城 (双语)
标准排名研究机构最近公布了2015年中国50大鬼城排行榜, 预测了未来最有可能成为鬼城的城市。不少地级和县级城市榜上有名, 这个排行不希望你的家乡上榜。
Standard Rating, a Chinese organisation specialising in rating and assessment, recently released a Top 50 list of potential 'Ghost Cities' in China. The list is dominated by county-level cities.
Apart from sparsley populated towns in the northwest, southwest and northeast, some candidates from prosperous provinces like Guangdong and Jiangsu have also made it on to the list.
The cold colour districts are less likely to become ghost cities than the warm-coloured ones.
当我说鬼城的时候, 我在说什么
Before we take a look at that list more closely, let's understand the definition of 'Ghost Cities.
这里的"鬼"不是魑魅魍魉, "鬼城" 也不是古老楼兰的梦幻覆灭。地理学上的鬼城是指很多新规划高标准建设的城市新区, 因空置率过高, 白天鲜有人群, 夜晚漆黑一片, 听上去是个中国国情的悖论。
By definition, a ghost town or city, is an abandoned village, town or city containing substantial visible remains. A town becomes a ghost town because the economic activity that supported it has failed, or perhaps due to natural or human-caused disasters such as floods, government action, uncontrolled lawlessness, war, or nuclear disasters.Many Chinese cities have established new, high-quality residential areas, only to find them unoccupied. These cities - silent by day and dark by night - are what we are talking about here.
?蒙古鄂尔多斯曾被称为小香港, 2011年, 这座能住100多万人的城市中只有不到3万人入住。
云南昆明呈贡新区十年前建成, 有特别多的办工大楼和特别多的广场, 就是没有车水马龙。
北京昌平区沃德兰乐园, 起初计划建成亚洲最大的游乐园, 媲美迪士尼, 结果变成鬼的专属乐园。
上海的泰晤士小镇, 初建时仿照歌特式建筑和英伦街道以吸引婚纱业者, 结果鲜有商家和游人。
天津于家堡金融区办工大楼过剩, 媒体讽刺: 未来35年天津需要的办工楼全都在那建好了。
国家住建部的占用地标准为每平方公里建成区容纳1万人。如果一个城市的建成区面积为100平方公里, 那么城区人口应该为100万人, 如果只有50万人, 对外来人口又无吸引力, 短时间就难以达到100万人, 沦为空城。
The 2015 List：The Chinese authorities reckon the capacity of a built-up area is about 10,000 people per square kilometers. The "Ghost City Index" is calculated based on the ratio between a city's population and its construction coverage. The ratio of the top 50 is under 0.5 or slightly above 0.5.
（Names followed by an asterisk are Prefecture-level cities.）
从2009年到2013年, 中国设市城市的建成区面积增加了0.97万平方公里, 相当于新建了50个洛阳城。
Compared to last year's list, instead of provincial capitals, it's prefecture-level cities that are much more likely to become candidates for ghost city status.
因为县级城市的大量加入以及增加了暂住人口的计算, 导致新疆突然成为拥有上榜城市最多的地区; 而去年榜上的惠州、中山、义乌、宁波、合肥因外来人口多, 直接退榜。
So many cities are built, ending up empty, and the land wasted, while China is far too crowded and real estate prices are far too high. It doesn't make any sense in a market economy.
Why Do They Become Ghost Cities?
Put simply, it's not the central parts of cities that become ghost cities. It's only the less attractive districts that end up that way.So why do people invest so much money in building shemes in unattractive places?The nature of ghost cities is overcapacity.
Over estimate of demand
地方政府对未来的需求预期过于乐观, 把未来人口规模预测得很大。
Government intervention
行政权力过于自信地干涉投资
It's certainly not inevitable, and often it's the result of administrative intervention, paralysing market forces.
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