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研究报告：光大证券-国务院关于金融促进经济发展若干意见对股票市场影响的点评-081215
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【研究报告内容摘要】
􀂄&国务院关于当期金融促进经济发展的若干意见，是中央政府对于目前下滑的经济和未来可能出现的情况作了详细的部署。从信心层面来说，能够较大程度的提升投资者信心，但是对于股票市场来说实际效果仍需观察。主要基于如下5&个理由：&#、货币增速并没有比1998&年明显放松，股票需求提升仍需等待。与遭受东南亚金融危机的1998&年相比，M2&增速-GDP&增速-CPI&为8.5，另外在2000&年经济开始复苏时，M2&增速-GDP&增速-CPI&也为4%，而意见指出：2009&年以高于GDP&增长与物价上涨之和约3&至4&个百分点的增长幅度作为2009&年货币供应总量目标。从这个角度来看，股市的需求未必能够明显增长。&#、09&年确定性需求的方向在于4&万亿投资。从信贷投向来看，政府希望调动银行信贷资金支持经济增长，信贷方向与4&万亿方向基本一致。政府投资的“4&万亿”具体构成是，近一半投资将用于铁路、公路、机场和城乡电网建设，总额1.8&万亿元；用于地震重灾区的恢复重建投资1&万亿元；用于农村民生工程和农村基础设施3700&亿元；生态环境3500&亿元，保障性安居工程2800&亿元，自主创新结构调整1600&亿元，医疗卫生和文化教育事业400&亿元。&#、信贷有保有压，减少对“三高”行业供给，对相关行业上市公司有利。信贷政策坚持区别对待、有保有压原则，适当控制对一般加工业的贷款，限制对高耗能、高排放行业和产能过剩行业劣质企业的贷款。我们认为从供给和需求的角度来看，对于三高行业的信贷控制进一步减少了行业的供给，如果4&万亿投资利于提振相关需求，那么如建材等行业的上市公司有利。&#、《贷款通则》调整，仍难以改变银行盈利下行预期。适当调整可能主要集中在逾期贷款展期、中小企业信贷、融资并购上。一方面目前制约银行信贷主要是相应的风险控制度和终身责任制，所以货币政策的放松并没有很好的体现在信贷的放松；另一方面也可能使得银行信用成本提升，业绩压力仍大。
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Now, the international financial crisis has spread from parts of the world to the entire globe, from the developed countries to the emerging markets, and from the financial sector to the real economy, which has exerted a big impact on the economic development and people's life worldwide. At such a crucial moment, it is of great significance for us to convene here to discuss measures on maintaining the international financial stability and promoting world's economic growth. //
The ongoing international financial crisis has spread to encompass such a large area and has exerted such a deep anti intense impact that is unprecedented since the 30s of the last century. There are various reasons behind this financial crisis, involving both improper macroeconomic policies and insufficient financial regulation. Without correct understanding of those reasons, we will hardly be able to draw lessons from it and avoid similar crisis in the future. // Upon the occurrence of this financial crisis, the international society took prompt actions and adopted some countermeasures at different levels. We wish these measures would enable us to attain the results expected as soon as possible. To effectively cope with the financial crisis, countries in the world should enhance confidence, increase coordination and intensify cooperation. //
The top priority of the international community is to take all the necessary measures to restore market confidence as soon as possible and curb the spread of the financial crisis. The major developed economies should undertake their due responsibilities and obligations, implement macroeconomic policies that are conducive to the economic and financial stability and growth both domestically and internationally, take active steps to stabilize their own and the international financial markets and safeguard investors' interests. Meanwhile, they should enhance macroeconomic policy coordination, expand economic and financial information sharing, and deepen cooperation in international financial regulation so as to create necessary conditions for stability in both the domestic and international financial markets. //
At present, the slowdown of world's economic growth and the increase of uncertain and unstable factors aggravate and complicate the situation. To maintain economic growth is the cornerstone of addressing the financial crisis. Countries should readjust their macroeconomic policies, take necessary financial and monetary measures to actively promote economic development and avoid a global economic recession. Joint efforts should be made to stabilize the international energy and food markets, curb speculation and build an enabling environment for the growth of the world economy. The international community should pay special attention to preventing various forms of trade and investment protectionism and pushing for early progress of the Doha round of negotiations. //
The international community should earnestly draw lessons from the financial crisis and make necessary reform of the international financial system based on full consultations among all stakeholders. Reform of the international financial system should aim at establishing a new international financial order that is fair, just, inclusive and orderly and fostering an institutional environment conducive to sound global economic development. //The reform should be conducted in a comprehensive, balanced, incremental and pragmatic manner. A comprehensive reform needs a general design which should not only focus on improving the international financial system, monetary system and financial institutions and international financial rules and procedures but also take into account the development stages and characteristics of different economies. // A balanced reform is based on overall consideration, seeks a balance among the interests of all parties and builds a decision-making and management mechanism with wider and more effective participation. An incremental reform is one that seeks gradual progress and should proceed in a phased manner, starting with the easier issues, and achieve the final objectives of reform through sustained efforts under the precondition of maintaining stability of the international financial market. A pragmatic reform is one that stresses practical results. All reform measures should contribute to the international financial stability, the global economic growth and the welfare of people in all countries. //
Based on those considerations, China proposes implementing the following reform measures: 1) stepping up international cooperation in financial regulation and improving the internation 2) advancing reform of the international financial organizations and increasing the representative ness and say of the developing countries i 3) encouraging regional financial cooperation and making best use of the regional fund a 4) improving the international currency system and steadily promoting the diversity of the international monetary system. //
(Excerpt from the speech delivered by Hu Jintao at the G20 Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy in Washington, Nov. 16th, 2008)
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